According to the Federal Statistical Office’s flash estimate, seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product (GDP) recorded a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.1 % in the second quarter, after still rising markedly in the previous two quarters. The Monthly Report states that after US tariffs were raised in April, industrial output and exports recorded a fall-off. While private consumption benefited from a sharp rise in wages, the labour market remained too weak to generate stronger momentum. The inflation rate fell distinctly in the second quarter.

Given the uncertainties in the markets at present, it is gratifying that institutions are well equipped overall, said Bundesbank Executive Board member Michael Theurer, commenting on the outcome of the latest stress test. The stress testing exercise was run by the European Banking Authority (EBA) in cooperation with the European Central Bank (ECB). It indicated that the euro area’s banking sector remains capable of enduring even under tougher economic conditions.

In the first half of 2025, the Bundesbank withdrew approximately 36,600 counterfeit euro banknotes with a nominal value of just under €2.1 million from circulation in Germany. The number of counterfeits rose by 8 % compared with the second half of 2024. 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) was probably more or less stagnant in the second quarter, according to the Bundesbank’s latest Monthly Report. One reason for this was frontloading effects relating to exports and industrial production in anticipation of higher US tariffs in the first quarter of 2025. In addition, activity in the services sector probably expanded only slightly, partly because private consumption is likely to have provided less impetus. The construction sector is even expected to make a significantly negative contribution to growth. Inflation was down slightly to 2.0 % in June.